A Race Against Time: Will Miran Join the Fed's Rate-Setting Team?
Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump's top economic advisor, is poised to secure Senate approval for his nomination to become a Federal Reserve governor. However, his influence on interest rate decisions at the upcoming Fed meeting appears unlikely.
Senate Banking Committee Vote
The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote on Miran's nomination, with Republicans expected to push it through despite Democratic opposition. Yet, the tight schedule and complex Senate rules make it doubtful that Miran will be confirmed in time for the Fed's September meeting.
Hurdles to Confirmation
Even if the Senate approves Miran's nomination, several steps remain before he can join the Fed's rate-setting table:
- Trump must sign the commission
- The Fed must swear Miran in
The fastest this process has taken in recent history is four business days, a tight timeline given the Senate's busy schedule.
Trump's Influence on Fed Policy
Trump has been vocal about his desire for lower interest rates, and Miran's appointment would be his first chance to influence the Fed's policy in his current term. Two current Fed governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have already advocated for a rate cut, but the majority, including Chair Jerome Powell, have signaled a more cautious approach.
Miran's Stance on Inflation and Tariffs
During his confirmation hearing, Miran did not explicitly state his stance on interest rates but expressed his belief that inflation is decreasing and that tariffs won't reverse this trend. He also plans to keep his White House job, taking unpaid leave during his Fed term, a decision that has raised concerns about his independence.
Potential Changes to Nomination Process
Senate Republicans are considering changes to the nomination process to fast-track certain votes, which could impact the timeline for Miran's confirmation. However, with a packed Senate schedule, it remains uncertain whether these changes will be implemented in time to affect Miran's nomination.
