Bitcoin ETF: What's Really Happening with the Numbers?

The Great Debate: Are Outflows Really That Bad?

Bitcoin ETFs are in the spotlight, but opinions are divided.

• BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has been sliding, sparking discussions.
• Some argue that charts showing money leaving the ETF are misleading.
• Others believe it's just a normal market move.

The Analyst's Take

Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, called a viral chart about IBIT "way off."

• He explained that the chart exaggerated the withdrawals.
• According to Bloomberg's data, actual outflows in November were less than 3% of total assets.
• Balchunas reassured that this is just a normal pullback, not a major issue.

The Economist's Perspective

Mohamed El-Erian shared a report from CNBC stating that $2.2 billion was pulled out of Bitcoin ETFs in November.

• The exodus was due to short-term investors getting spooked.
• Balchunas' correction was about the chart, not the CNBC numbers.

The Price Picture: A Downtrend Story

IBIT is in a downtrend:

• Broke below a key support level at $51.
• Stabilized around $49, but the bounce may not last.
• The next big support level is around $43.40.

Technical Indicators: Not Looking Promising

• RSI is near 33, close to oversold territory.
• Earlier recoveries happened at even lower levels.
• This may not signal a major reversal.
• The price broke a key trendline that had been supporting it for months.
• Now, that line is acting as resistance.

Potential Upside?

If IBIT can get back above $51.12, it might climb to:

• $55.42
• $58.86

But for now, the trend is still down.