Bitcoin's Holiday Slump: A Look at Past Dips and Potential Surges

Bitcoin's value has dropped by about 7% since last Christmas.

This might seem like bad news, but looking back, similar drops have often been followed by big gains.

Historical Trends

Over the past 12 years, there have been three times when Bitcoin's value was lower on Christmas Eve than the year before:

• 2014: Fell by over half, followed by a 41% rise in 2015.
• 2018: Dropped by nearly 71%, followed by a 79% climb in 2019.
• 2022: Fell by nearly 67%, followed by a 160% rise in 2023.

Current Situation

This year, Bitcoin's value started around $94,120, reached a peak of over $126,000 in October, and then fell sharply. As of Christmas Eve 2025, it's trading around $87,000, down nearly 30% from its peak. This drop is part of one of the weakest fourth quarters on record for Bitcoin. The value has been stuck in a narrow range, partly due to tax-related selling and lower trading activity during the holidays.

Future Predictions

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could see a big rise in 2026. Based on past patterns, experts predict Bitcoin could reach between $125,000 and $200,000. Several factors could drive this growth:

• Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $132 billion since they launched.
• Companies are holding more Bitcoin, with corporate treasuries adding to their holdings.
• The Federal Reserve might cut interest rates, which usually helps Bitcoin's value.
• The government has started a Bitcoin reserve.
• Falling hash rates could signal a coming rise in value.