Bitcoin's Price Puzzle: What's Next for the Cryptocurrency?
Bitcoin's price has a habit of playing tricks on traders. It often breaks a key level briefly, then turns around and closes back inside. This trick, known as the Swing Failure Pattern (SFP), has happened 22 times since early 2021. Most of these times, the price moved more than 10% in the opposite direction. In 16 cases, it marked major highs or lows. But is this pattern still reliable?
Expert Opinions
Some experts think this time might be different. They say it's important to wait for the weekly close to confirm the pattern. Right now, Bitcoin is in a neutral zone. For a strong bullish signal, the price needs to sweep below recent lows, around $85,000, and then close back above that level. Without that, there's no clear trend.
Another trader sees two possible scenarios:
- Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin forms a higher low after a correction, which is typical in bull cycles.
- Bearish Scenario: The price keeps showing weakness, suggesting the four-year cycle might have already peaked.
This trader thinks it's hard to be bullish until Bitcoin reclaims the $98,000–$100,000 zone. Until then, the current move could just be a short-lived bounce or a bearish retest.
Conclusion
While this pattern has been reliable in the past, no one can say for sure what will happen next. It's all about waiting for the right confirmation. The first half of 2026 might be uncertain without clearer signals. But long-term, there's still hope.
