Brackets in Motion: How the 2026 NCAA Picks Are Shifting

The path to March Madness is tightening as the last conference tournaments finish. Teams that were once on the bubble are now in the spotlight, and the top seeds may change depending on a few key games. The NCAA uses an advanced system called NET Rankings to decide who gets in and where they sit on the bracket. Analysts try to guess how the committee will seed teams based on current results and other factors. The top four projected seeds are Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida. Each of these teams must win their conference tournament to lock in the number one spot. Duke survived a tight opening game against Florida State and still holds its place, but it needs to finish the ACC tournament. Michigan beat Michigan State in a final regular‑season game, keeping its chance to jump to the top spot if it wins the Big Ten tournament and sees Duke stumble. Arizona closed out its season with a win over Colorado, staying in the mix for the top seed if it can claim the Big 12 title. Florida’s win over Kentucky pushed it ahead of UConn, but a deep SEC run is required to secure the number one overall spot.

The second‑seed line remains contested. Iowa State, after a Big 12 tournament win over Texas Tech, has taken Illinois’ spot. Houston, with a recent victory over Oklahoma State, still vies for the second seed, but its final position will depend on how it performs in the Big 12 tournament. Michigan State stayed at the second seed after losing to Michigan, but a strong showing in the Big Ten could move it up. Teams on the bubble are also shifting. Santa Clara, NC State, UCF, and Missouri are still in the conversation for last four byes. Meanwhile Miami (OH), SMU, Texas, and VCU are fighting for the final four in. New Mexico, Auburn, SDSU, and Indiana have slipped to the first Four out list. The tournament’s early matchups include a mix of powerhouses and underdogs, with first‑four games featuring Idaho vs. Howard, Lehigh vs. Florida A&M, Miami (OH) vs. Texas, and SMU vs. VCU. Every day brings new updates as conference tournaments finish. Analysts keep adjusting their projections, and the final bracket will be revealed on Selection Sunday. Fans can expect surprises as teams fight for seeding and the coveted spots in March Madness.

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