Brazil’s Vote Showed a Tied Finish Between Lula and Bolsonaro
A recent Datafolha poll shows that if the final election were held today, Brazil’s presidential race would be a dead heat between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Lula | 46 % |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 43 % |
A similar split emerges when the opposition is Tarcísio de Freitas, governor of São Paulo:
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Lula | 45 % |
| Tarcísio de Freitas | 42 % |
These numbers indicate a technical tie in either matchup.
Election Timeline
- October 4 – First round of voting.
- October 25 – Runoff if no candidate secures a majority.
Lula, aged 80 and aiming for his fourth term, currently leads in most scenarios. Flávio’s campaign gained momentum after his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, nominated him in December; Jair is presently imprisoned.
Voter Rejection
Both candidates face high rejection rates:
- 46 % of respondents would never vote for Lula.
- 45 % would never vote for Flávio.
These figures mirror the overall tie in support.
Poll Details
- Sample size: 2,004 voters
- Period: Tuesday–Thursday
- Coverage: 137 municipalities
- Margin of error: ±2 %
What This Means
The poll underscores the fierce competition ahead. The final outcome will hinge on voter turnout and how undecided citizens ultimately cast their ballots in the coming weeks.
