Chilly Surprise: Snow Might Reach Unexpected Southern States

A significant weather shift is heading towards the U.S., with a possibility of snow reaching as far south as North Carolina and Tennessee. This weather event is expected to affect at least 25 states, bringing a mix of rain and snow.

Initial Forecast vs. Reality

Initially, meteorologists anticipated a strong clipper system moving into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This system was supposed to trigger a major winter storm, dumping heavy snow across the Eastern U.S. However, a sudden influx of warm air altered these plans. Instead of snow, most areas will experience rain, which will then move towards the East Coast by Wednesday.

The Role of the Cold Front

As the clipper system continues its journey south, the cold front trailing behind it will become the main force behind the precipitation. While this change reduces the chances of a massive snowstorm, it doesn't mean the weather will be uneventful. Areas in the Ohio Valley might still see some snow showers.

Uncertainty Further East

Further east, the outcome is less clear. The arrival of colder air and the amount of remaining moisture will determine whether snow showers occur. However, significant snow accumulation is unlikely due to the warmer and wetter conditions preceding the system.

Potential Travel Disruptions

This sudden burst of snow could lead to travel disruptions if visibility decreases rapidly. Locations along the I-95 corridor are expected to face minimal impacts. As the system moves east, colder air will follow, leading to lake-effect and lake-enhanced snow near the Great Lakes and upslope snow across the Appalachians.

Specific Areas of Impact

• Lake Michigan shoreline in Michigan, extending westward towards the Indiana-Illinois border, will be particularly affected, especially if the wind direction shifts from southerly to northerly.
• Snowfall is predicted to begin late Wednesday through Thursday, with totals ranging from 8 to 12 inches.
• Areas around Lake Superior near Marquette, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, northern Pennsylvania, and Upstate New York will also experience lake-effect and lake-enhanced snowfall.

Wind Direction Uncertainty

There is still some uncertainty regarding the wind direction, particularly whether it will shift from northerly or northwesterly. This change could alter which areas receive the heaviest snowfall. The storm will start moving through the Appalachians late on Wednesday, primarily affecting the mountain region.

Snow Showers and Upslope Snow

As the winds shift northwest, snow showers will intensify into early Thursday. Upslope snow will occur in high terrain from the Tennessee and North Carolina border, northward into West Virginia and along the highest peaks of the Appalachians. Some areas west of the mountains might see light snow, while areas east of the mountains may only experience a few light rain showers.

Current Snowfall Outlook

Currently, heavy, widespread snow is unlikely outside the highest elevations. Most of the accumulating snow will occur from early Wednesday through Thursday morning, tapering off to flurries by Thursday afternoon.