Climate Change and Your Paycheck: What the Numbers Really Say

Breaking Down the Claim

The idea that climate change is shrinking U. S. salaries by 12% is making the rounds, but does it hold up? Let's break it down.

The Study's Premise

• The claim comes from a study that imagines a world without man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
• It then estimates how much richer Americans would be in that imaginary scenario.
• This is not real data; it's a guess.

Economic Reality

• If climate change were really cutting salaries by 12%, we'd see it in the economy.
• But we don't. Instead:
• The U. S. economy has grown.
• Productivity has risen.
• Living standards have improved.

The Study's Admissions

• The study admits its numbers are shaky.
• The estimated income loss could be as low as 2% or as high as 22%.
• That's a huge range! It shows the number isn't reliable.

Historical Context

• History shows that colder periods, not warmer ones, have brought slower growth and food shortages.
• Warmer periods have generally supported:
• Longer growing seasons.
• Higher yields.

The Role of CO2 and Modern Agriculture

• The claim ignores the role of CO2 and modern agriculture in boosting productivity.
• Rising CO2 has contributed to:
• Increased plant growth.
• Larger leaf area across large portions of Earth.
• Crop yields for staples like wheat, corn, and rice have risen strongly over recent decades.
• These are real-world outcomes, not guesses.

The Most Revealing Fact

• Most revealing is what the article cannot show: an actual decline in U. S. salaries attributable to climate change.
• No such decline exists.
• What exists instead is a:
• Growing economy.
• Rising productivity.
• Improving agricultural output.
• Falling climate-related mortality during the very period when temperatures increased modestly.