College Football's Future: Big Changes Ahead

Imagine college football in 2030. The landscape might look very different from what we see today. The ACC's recent settlement with Florida State and Clemson has brought some stability, but it's also a glimpse into a future where only the strongest schools survive. This settlement has created clear divisions within the conference, similar to society's classes. Florida State and Clemson wanted recognition as bigger brands with more invested in football. They got it. This isn't new. Conferences like the Big 12 and Big Ten have welcomed new members who agreed to take smaller shares. The ACC itself took SMU with a similar deal. The Pac-12 broke apart partly because everyone was receiving equal shares. USC and UCLA weren't happy about that. Now, the ACC has established itself as the clear No. 3 among the Power Four conferences. Any arrangement that keeps the league out of court is a win. But let's look deeper. The new revenue-sharing plan has significant disparities. Schools achieving bonuses by winning championships could earn $30 million more in a given year, while others might get $7 million less. Every school in the conference knew what they were getting into. What they didn't see is a troubling future – a different future in a parallel universe. In this universe, only a portion of the 134 FBS schools survive to call themselves FBS schools. A new ecosystem of "haves" is already being created on a national scale. Remember the Super League and Project Rudy? Both proposed reducing the highest level of college football to 70-80 schools with centralized governance. This would unlock billions tied up in separate conference media rights deals. This shift would mean less loyalty to the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 and more loyalty to whoever is running that combo of 70-80 schools. It would also cause a lot of people to alter their career paths. Greg Sankey (SEC commissioner) and Tony Pettiti (Big Ten commissioner) might be out of a job in that model. The Super League folks were so confident in their rollout. CBS Sports asked one of their members about the prospects of the SEC and Big Ten commissioners' roles in a new college football landscape. "We'd buy them out, " that person said, more than half seriously. The ACC settling lawsuits provides short-term stability, but conference realignment still lingers down the road. The breakaway that has long been discussed is taking place before our eyes. There is going to be a day when the likes of Alabama wakes up and asks itself, "Exactly why is Vanderbilt making the same money as us? " Same for Ohio State and, say, Purdue. In the ACC, FSU, Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina are the biggest brands. The new revenue-sharing plan is merely a formal recognition. Whether they have a similar wake-up call is not the issue. This eventual awakening represents the ongoing consolidation of the sport. Realignment has claimed the Pac-12. It has also empowered the 34 schools that make up the SEC and Big Ten. Nothing of consequence happens in college athletics without their say-so. Whether those conferences would cede power for the greater good -- meaning more money -- has yet to be determined. But that money is becoming available. The Super League would be backed by private equity. Third-party investment in college athletics is already about to blow up in a big way, so dismissing the Super League/Project Rudy because of its funding plan doesn't make sense.

The Big 12 considered a private equity infusion of as much as a $1 billion. The Big Ten is reportedly looking at a private equity investment. Since at least last summer, American Conference commissioner Tim Pernetti has been bullish publicly on considering outside investment in his conference. "I'm encouraged because everybody is out there doing it, " Pernetti told CBS Sports of investment opportunities in the sport. "It's great. Not only is investment important but the expertise that comes with that investment is important. " Consider all of it a reflection of media rights revenue economics. Eighty percent of any media rights deal is based on a conference's football value. Inside that, the value of any conference is held by the top three or four teams. Do the math, for the ACC and the sport. The blueprint then is already in place for rollout (more or less) by about 2030 when the current media rights deals (except the ACC) all expire. In the ACC, there's Florida State, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina. There's your four. Three of them are football schools. The other (North Carolina) is trying to become one having already spent about $15 million to hire Bill Belichick and his staff. Think of that as investment in whatever college football looks like in 2030. Kansas is doing the same thing, spending $400 million on its Gateway Project. Northwestern is spending $800 million to basically build a new Ryan Field. When Rutgers was invited to the Big Ten in 2012, it borrowed massively against future earnings to make up an athletic deficit. It will get its first full Big Ten share in 2027, 15 years after joining the league. It didn't have a choice if it wanted to be in the big time. In a romantic way, think of those investments as love letters to the game, or whoever eventually will be running the game. Those who don't want to be left behind. This is not to say those schools are going to leave anytime soon because that would be going against what the ACC finalized this week. It is to say those ACC powers have options when The Big One hits. The Big One -- as is becoming increasingly evident -- is already hitting. That is, a separation of the top football-playing schools. And as a Power Four administrator told this week: It's not going to be 2030 before "they have that fight. " It's going to be sooner. It's time to think a different way. Networks thought nothing of cherry-picking the best brands that led to the Pac-12's demise. One day soon, conference logos could mean nothing. A centralized economy means more for everyone. See the NFL. We can see that now. The economics are showing us the path. The SEC and Big Ten are virtue signaling with their desire for automatic qualifiers in the College Football Playoff. Short of that, it looks like the two powerhouse leagues will create more, better content by playing each other in nonconference games. They already have voting control of the structure and format of the CFP beginning in 2026. They're doing it because they can. They're doing it because the rest of FBS can't, or won't. In a perfect world, the Big 12 and ACC would merge and at least pose more of a threat to the SEC and Big Ten. Or maybe that eventually happens on its own as part of Super League economics. Consolidation used to mean they were coming for your league. In the future it could mean the game is coming for your alma mater.

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