Crime Data: What's Gov. Hochul Not Telling Us?

Gov. Hochul recently highlighted a significant drop in crime rates across New York, specifically mentioning a 26% decrease in shootings and low gun violence numbers. She painted a rosy picture, claiming that murder and gun crime rates are at a 60-year low. However, let's delve deeper into the numbers. Hochul's data comes from only 28 of the state's 500+ police departments, covering just 4. 3 million people, or 22% of the state's population. Moreover, these departments are mostly in Republican-led areas. The report itself notes that the data is preliminary and subject to change, much like the recent revisions in employment and crime statistics.

The report doesn't include any data from New York City, which has seen a 33% increase in felony crimes compared to 2019, totaling over 45, 000 additional crimes. While Hochul celebrates a minor 2% crime reduction in NYC from 2023 to 2024, the bigger picture shows a stark increase in crime since 2019. Outside NYC, crime is also up by 15. 8% statewide in 2023, with gun-related violent crimes still significantly higher than in 2019. The rise in crime coincides with changes in the criminal justice system, such as bail reform and parole reform, which led to the release of thousands of criminals. It's crucial to compare current crime stats with 2019, before these reforms took full effect. Hochul's strategy of using elevated early 2020s crime numbers as a benchmark is misleading. The increase in crime is a direct result of these policy changes, which have put more criminals on the streets, leading to more crime and victimization.

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