Crime Stats Revised: Violent Crime on the Rise

Recently, the FBI quietly updated their crime statistics for 2022, revealing a surprising increase in violent crime across the United States. Instead of a previously reported 2.1% drop, the new data shows a 4.5% rise in violent crimes like murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults. This change is significant, with thousands more incidents reported. Experts note that this is unusual. "From 2004 to 2015, there were no revisions," said Carl Moody, a professor at William & Mary. "Changes were minor from 2016 to 2020, but the huge shifts in 2021 and 2022, without explanation, make it hard to trust the FBI data." The only hint of this revision is a small footnote in the 2023 crime report stating, "The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated." Thomas Marvell, president of Justec Research, agrees that the FBI should explain these changes.

Interestingly, the FBI's September press release didn't mention this update. According to crimeresearch.org, the revised data shows a net increase of 1,699 more murders, 7,780 more rapes, 33,459 more robberies, and 37,091 more aggravated assaults from 2021 to 2022. Some 2021 figures were adjusted downward. The increase is notable because some of the most violent precincts, like those in New York City and Los Angeles, still haven't provided their data. The FBI now admits that their statistics are based on data from only 13,719 of the country's 19,268 law enforcement agencies. This update is politically sensitive. Democrats have used the previous numbers showing a decrease in crime to argue against Republican concerns about rising crime. During the September presidential debate, former President Donald Trump argued with the moderator about these statistics. The new data challenges the previous narrative.

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