Crypto IPOs: A Timing Signal or Just a Coincidence?
The Trend
Crypto markets have observed a pattern where initial public offerings (IPOs) often coincide with the peak of a bull run. This trend has been evident in recent years, with several companies going public around the time Bitcoin reached its highest prices.
2021: A Notable Example
- Coinbase's direct listing aligned with Bitcoin's record high of nearly $64,000.
- Stronghold Digital Mining's IPO occurred just weeks before Bitcoin's peak in November 2021.
2025: A Repeated Pattern
- Bullish and Figure's IPOs happened within a few months of Bitcoin's all-time high.
Why Does This Happen?
The timing of these IPOs is not coincidental. During strong crypto advances:
- The path to public markets opens for exchanges, brokers, miners, and asset managers.
- Volumes, fees, and media attention are at their highest.
Does This Mean IPOs Cause Market Peaks?
No. The pattern suggests that companies go public when the market is hot, and investors are eager to buy. This can lead to a situation where the market is already at its peak when the IPO happens.
Exceptions to the Rule
Not all IPOs happen at the peak. Some companies, like Canaan, have gone public during bear markets. This shows that while the pattern is interesting, it's not a foolproof indicator of market timing.
Conclusion
While crypto IPOs often happen near the peak of a bull run, this pattern is not a guarantee of market timing. It's just one factor to consider when trying to understand the crypto market.
