Drought Watch: The New Kid on the Block, TMSDI

One of the key facts regarding how we experience the natural world is that droughts are notably disruptive and impact many things from the environment to how we live our daily social lives. First things first, droughts are very complex. This is especially true when we attempt to monitor them and anticiapate them, why is this? It isn't all about rainfall anymore. The modern approach must consider multiple factors like precipitation, temperature, and vegetation health. So what do you think? Is there an index that casts such a wide net? Enter TMSDI, or Trivariate Multiscalar-Standardized Drought Index. This system is designed to look at those multiple factors to get a clearer picture. How does TMSDI do this and what does this mean for people? TMSDI accomplishes this by assessing how precipitation, temperature, and NDVI( Normalized Difference Index) work together. This boosts its reliability of the index to make connections with other drought indexes like SPI and the SPTE a lot less complicated. What are SPI and SPTE though? When it comes to drought monitoring and anticipation, it turns out both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Temperature Index (SPTI) are two major players. They are often used and focus on different aspects of drought. SPI focuses on precipitation, while SPTE includes temperature. Both are commonly used and they are used on different time scales. There is an interesting finding regarding SPI and SPTE. TMSDI is more consistent and correlated than SPTE. Do you think we are in the clear regarding these measurable conditions? Well, it seems that when looking at different drought conditions over the long term, TMSDI reveals that extreme drought is more likely than extreme wet, even given the transition probabilities over time.

The norms are changing in the world, and this will affect what to expect in drought prediction, and it will have to be addressed. What does that mean? Given the solid consistency and accuracy of TMSDI, it makes sense to use TMSDI as an effective tool to get more clarity on drought conditions over a range of periods and climate factors. Who is unable to do this though? Well to do all of this requires data and expertise, and a missing variable could yield a different result. Droughts take a toll on resources, and agriculture remains one of the major impacts of a drought. Look from the perspective of the droughts' effect on food at a local level, and think of what TMSDI means for food security locally. Drought conditions will ultimately affect what we eat. This means it will be important to look at both the urban areas in the way that droughts can affect things down to the level of vegetable health, and consider what the correlation statistics are in between SPI and SPTE via TMSDI. So what should we think then, is it really that easy? Unfortunately, there are no guarantees. Not everything will always go to plan with this approach because things will always get complicated as the climate changes. TMSDI will be a beneficial tool but will never be a silver bullet. TMSDI is designed to be dynamic and adaptable enough to be a part of a larger solution, and not the only part. One question remains regarding the ability of TMSDI. How will it behave over time regarding monitoring and anticipating droughts? This will be the biggest test of its utilization. With droughts being a constant issue with many factors, the use of TMSDI will be essential.

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