politicsneutral
Early Voting Trends: Who's Ahead in NYC, New Jersey, and Virginia?
USASaturday, November 1, 2025
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New Jersey
- Democrats outpacing Republicans in early voting.
- Mikie Sherrill, Democratic candidate for governor, benefits from this trend.
- Mail-in ballots significantly favor Democrats.
New York City
- Older voters leading in Democratic early voting.
- Younger voters were key in Zohran Mamdani's primary win.
- Electorate is younger than past mayoral elections, getting younger as the week progresses.
- Polls show:
- Younger voters strongly support Mamdani.
- Cuomo leads among older voters but with a smaller margin.
- Geographic distribution favors Cuomo more than in the primary, but may not be enough to overcome Mamdani's lead.
Virginia
- Voters do not register by party, but geographic breakdown suggests:
- Abigail Spanberger, Democratic candidate, is in a slightly stronger position than Kamala Harris was last year.
- Mail ballots (favoring Democrats) make up a larger share of the early vote this year.
- In-person early voting slightly favors Republicans.
- Worst performing counties are those where Trump won big last year.
Final Notes
- Early voting data provides hints but is not a perfect predictor.
- Final outcomes will be clear only on Election Day.
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