Europe's Defense Dilemma: Can They Go It Alone?

Europe's defense capabilities are under the microscope. Experts believe that Europe can build up most of the critical defense enablers needed to deter or defeat Russia without U. S. support within five years. However, this depends on the political will to invest. Currently, European countries rely heavily on the U. S. for various supporting capabilities and assets within the NATO alliance. This dependency has become increasingly uncertain due to the shifting political landscape. The experts surveyed highlighted several key areas where Europe is falling short. Battlefield command and control, long-range strike, and suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) are all areas where Europe could achieve self-sufficiency within five years. However, space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) is a significant challenge. Most experts believe Europe will need five to ten years to develop sufficient capacity in this area. Military satellite communications and unmanned ISR are areas where Europe is closest to having sufficient capability. These capabilities are either already in place or expected to be within the next three years. However, aerial refueling and strategic airlift remain contentious, with some experts believing Europe has enough, while others think it will take three to five years to achieve sufficient capacity. The biggest hurdle is the willingness of European governments to invest in defense. Only a few NATO members in Europe are meeting the 2% GDP spending target set by NATO. This lack of investment could hinder Europe's ability to build up its defense capabilities quickly.

Russia's potential threat to Europe is a real concern. Researchers estimate that Russia could be ready to attack a European Union country within three to ten years. This gives Europe a window of opportunity to prepare, but experts warn that this time must not be wasted. Europe needs to ramp up its defense capabilities quickly to ensure it can deter or defend against a potential Russian attack. The example of Poland's military expansion shows that capabilities can be built up quickly with the right financial commitment. Europe may not need top-notch capabilities to defeat a Russian attack, but it does need to invest in its defense enablers to ensure it can deter aggression. Some analysts mentioned additional enablers not included in the survey, such as combat engineering, wet-gap crossing, airborne electronic attack, and improved military mobility. These enablers are crucial for boosting the effectiveness of direct combat forces. Europe would also need to build up its troop numbers and add tanks, artillery, and other equipment to compensate for a potential U. S. withdrawal. The U. S. withdrawal from Europe, combined with a U. S. -Russia deal over Ukraine, would require Europe to add capacities equivalent to the fighting force of 300, 000 U. S. troops. This would focus on mechanized and armored forces, which are critical for deterring a Russian invasion. Europe has the people and the economy to win a conventional war against Russia, but it needs to complete its European force package to act as a strong deterrent.

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