Google's New Way to Predict the Future

Google is introducing a new tool to its search engine and finance platform, showcasing predictions from Polymarket and Kalshi. These platforms allow users to bet on future events, such as:

• Will there be a recession in 2025?
• Who will win the next U.S. presidential election?

How It Works

• Prediction Markets: Users buy and sell shares on potential outcomes.
• Crowd Wisdom: Prices reflect collective opinions, backed by real money and real people.

Industry Impact

• First Big Tech Move: While not the first to use prediction markets, Google is one of the first major tech companies to integrate them directly into its platforms.
• Boost for Polymarket: Operating outside the U.S. due to regulations, Polymarket gains visibility through this integration.

AI Enhancements

Google is also updating its finance platform with AI tools like Deep Search, powered by Gemini AI. Features include:

• Long-form answers with sources
• Real-time transcripts and summaries for earnings calls

Availability

• Google Labs: The prediction feature is currently in Google Labs, with plans to expand access soon.
• Global Expansion: Google is also expanding its finance platform to India, making it more global.

Vision

This initiative is about:

• Making predictions more accessible
• Leveraging crowd wisdom
• Enhancing finance with AI
• Making complex information more understandable