Guessing Games: The USDA Data Freeze and Its Ripple Effects

The U.S. government shutdown has caused a significant disruption in the agriculture world, leaving farmers, traders, and analysts in the dark.

USDA Data Silence

The USDA, usually a reliable source for crop data, has been silent since mid-September. This lack of information is particularly problematic during harvest time, leaving everyone scrambling to piece together information from various sources.

Private forecasters
Media reports
Social media posts

However, none of these sources can replace the comprehensive data the USDA provides.

Uncertainty in Crop Yields

The uncertainty is particularly high for corn and soybean yields. Analysts' estimates for these crops vary widely, reflecting a significant difference in opinion.

Corn Yields

Estimates range from 181.7 to 186.0 bushels per acre
All estimates are below the USDA's September estimate

Soybean Stock Estimates

Estimates range from 187 million to 494 million bushels
Wide range shows the impact of lack of USDA data

Halt in Export Sales Data

The shutdown has also halted the release of crucial export sales data, especially problematic during the busiest shipping period of the year. Markets are left guessing about crop demand, relying on rumors and speculation.

Potential deal with China to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by December
Lack of confirmation makes it hard to assess the true situation

Impact on Farmers and Traders

Farmers and traders are feeling the pressure as they await the USDA's next report. The shutdown has made it difficult to assess the true size of the crops, leading to:

Poor decision-making
Increased market volatility

USDA Assurances

Despite the shutdown, the USDA assures that they are still collecting data and their statistical methods haven't changed. However, until the government reopens and the data is released, the guessing games will continue.

The agriculture industry is left hoping for a swift resolution to the shutdown and a return to reliable data.