Hail Is Getting Bigger as the Planet Heats Up

A new study shows that as the planet warms, storms will produce more large hailstones—those bigger than a marble—and fewer smaller ones. By the end of this century, the frequency of large hail could rise between 38 % and 47 %, depending on greenhouse‑gas emissions, while smaller hail events may shrink by 4 % to 8 %.

Why Large Hail Matters

• Roof Damage: A single big stone punches a roof, creating a hole that is hard to repair and often forces an expensive replacement.
• Kinetic Energy: Bigger hail falls faster, delivering more energy that can dent cars, break solar panels, and damage infrastructure.
• Thermal Dynamics: Warmer air holds ~4 % more moisture per degree Fahrenheit, fueling stronger updrafts and taller thunderstorms that produce larger hail.

The Melting Effect on Small Hail

Because a warmer atmosphere reduces the amount of cold air aloft, smaller hailstones are more likely to melt before reaching the ground. This means:

• High‑hail regions (Argentina, parts of Europe, Canada, U.S. Northern Plains) could see a sharp increase in damaging hail events.
• Tropical areas might experience fewer small hailstones.

Economic Toll

Hail now costs more than many hurricanes, yet building codes rarely account for it. As people and critical infrastructure move into hail‑prone zones, the risk grows unless structures are designed to withstand larger stones.

A New Frontier in Climate Impact

Climate change reshapes the weather we experience daily. Larger, more destructive hail is a new frontier in understanding how global warming can affect our everyday lives and economies.