Heat Forecasts for Arizona’s Summer

Arizona is already feeling the heat as summer approaches. People want to know how hot it will get.

Some years have been hotter than others. The first 100‑degree day this year was on March 18, which hints at the coming heat.

Two weather groups give long‑term predictions: AccuWeather and the National Weather Service (NWS).

• AccuWeather says that the north, northwest and southwest will be a little warmer than usual—about 1 to 2 degrees higher.
• The rest of the state should see temperatures close to the long‑term average.

Both groups expect the hot spell to start early. Peak temperatures could arrive as soon as June or July for most parts of Arizona.

The NWS looks at the whole state and finds a 40 to 50 percent chance that June, July and August will be above normal. In the northwest corner the odds rise to 50 to 60 percent, including towns near Nevada and those close to Beaver Dam in the north.

How do they forecast?

• AccuWeather pulls data from around the world, runs it through computer models, and compares it to 30 years of past weather.
• NWS uses satellites and ground stations, then runs complex numerical models to see how the weather will change over time.

Both methods aim to give reliable long‑term guidance, but remember that predictions can shift as the season unfolds.