How Climate Change Made the 2021 Canada Heatwave Deadlier

In 2021, Canada experienced a heatwave so intense it shattered global records. Scientists employed a weather forecast model to determine how much of this catastrophe was attributable to climate change.

The Study's Approach

Researchers examined three critical scenarios:

1. The heatwave as it occurred.
2. How it would have unfolded pre-industrialization.
3. How it might look in the future.

Shocking Findings

• Under current climate conditions, there could have been 30% more heat-related deaths than recorded.
• Climate change was responsible for 11 to 15% of the deaths, depending on weather patterns.
• Without climate change, fewer lives would have been lost.

A Dire Future

If a similar heatwave struck in the future, the death toll could increase by 16 to 31%. This reveals that climate change's impact on extreme weather is not just a linear rise but a far more complex and dangerous threat.

Why This Study Matters

The research provides a reliable method to link health impacts directly to climate change. This approach can be used in decision-making and legal settings to demonstrate how climate change is disrupting lives and health.