How Traffic Conflicts Predict Crash Risks on Highways

Traffic conflicts are like warning signs on roads. They show where crashes might happen. But not all spots on a highway are the same. Some areas have more risks than others.

Study on U.S. 101

This study looked at traffic conflicts on U.S. 101. It used a special method to see how risks change in different zones.

Risk Variation

Usually, people think crash risks are the same everywhere. But this study found that's not true. Risks change based on where you are.

The study used a fancy math model called max-stable process (MSP). It helps show how risks are connected in different areas.

Models Tested

Three types of MSP models were tested:

Schlather
Brown-Resnick
Smith

Each one shows how risks spread out. The study found that risks are stronger in some spots. They get weaker as you move away. This means nearby areas have similar risks.

Best Model

The best model was Schlather with a powered exponential function. It showed that:

Inner lanes are safer than outer ones.
Entrance ramps are riskier than exit ramps.

This makes sense because people are joining traffic there.

Heatmaps

The study also made heatmaps of risks. These maps showed where conflicts were worst. The math model matched these maps well. This proves the model works for traffic safety.

Importance

Why does this matter? Knowing where risks are high helps fix problems. It can make roads safer for everyone. This study shows that math can be a powerful tool for safety.