For months, some Republicans have claimed that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) job numbers are manipulated to make the economy look better. But the upcoming October jobs report, set to release just before the elections, might challenge these theories. The BLS initially reported that employers added only 114, 000 jobs in July, a low figure that caused concern about a recession. However, this number was later revised to 144, 000. If the October report shows slow job growth, similar to the effects of hurricanes in 2020, it could either silence the doubters or fuel more accusations.

Republican Senator Marco Rubio, for instance, called the last report “fake” after the BLS reported that 254, 000 new jobs were added in September. This was higher than expected. However, Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner, insists that the data is collected and analyzed by dedicated civil servants who value accuracy.

The BLS faces challenges in gathering data, especially since the pandemic lowered response rates to their surveys. This makes initial estimates less reliable, but revisions later smooth out these issues. Funding is also a concern, as inflation-adjusted funding for the BLS has decreased over the past decade.

Is the October Jobs Report a Game Changer?

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