Knoxville's Winter Preview: What to Expect in 2025-26

The leaves are falling, and mornings are getting chillier. But how cold will it get? And when might we see snow?

Frost and Freeze Dates

• Average first frost: October 24 (Knoxville)
• Median first freeze: November 2

Winter Outlook

The National Weather Service predicts a milder winter for East Tennessee:

• 33% to 40% chance of warmer-than-average temperatures in December, January, and February.

Snow Predictions

• Mid-November: Mixed rain and snow possible.
• Great Smoky Mountains and Appalachian regions: More snow than usual expected.
• First snow last year:
• Great Smoky Mountains: October 15 near LeConte Lodge.
• Knoxville: December 11, 2024.
• Average snowfall in Knoxville: 4.6 inches per winter.

Winter Solstice

• Date: December 21, 2025 (shortest day of the year).