The 2025 NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be a thrilling event, with several underdog teams poised to make a splash. One such team is McNeese State, led by head coach Will Wade. They secured their spot after winning the Southland Conference championship for the second year in a row. This year, they face Clemson in a 5 vs. 12 matchup, hoping to avoid last year's 21-point loss to Gonzaga.

The 2025 bracket features several other 5 vs. 12 matchups, including Memphis vs. Colorado State, Michigan vs. UC San Diego, and Oregon vs. Liberty. Historically, No. 12 seeds have pulled off victories in two of the last three tournaments. So, which of these underdogs has the best shot at causing an upset?

A proven computer model has been simulating the entire 2025 bracket 10, 000 times to predict the biggest upsets. This model has a strong track record, having correctly predicted 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since 2016. It also accurately forecasted UConn's championship run last year and Alabama's Cinderella story to the Final Four as a 4-seed.

One surprising prediction from the model is that North Carolina, a First Four winner, will defeat No. 6 Ole Miss in the first round. Ole Miss has struggled recently, losing five of their last eight games with an average margin of defeat of 13. 8 points. Meanwhile, North Carolina has shown resilience, reaching the Sweet 16 in 2024 and the National Championship Game in 2022.

Another upset pick is No. 13 Yale taking down No. 4 Texas A&M. Yale's senior guard John Poulakidas is a key player to watch, having led his team to an upset victory over Auburn last year. Yale's strong 3-point shooting could be their secret weapon against Texas A&M, who ranks 154th in the nation in 3-point defense.

The model's predictions are based on extensive simulations and a deep understanding of team dynamics. It's a tool that can help fans make more informed bracket picks. So, before locking in any predictions, it's worth checking out what the model has to say. After all, March Madness is all about the unexpected, and this year's tournament is shaping up to be no different.

March Madness 2025: Unlikely Heroes and Big Surprises

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