Monsoon Set to Slow Crop Planting in India

India's monsoon, which supplies 70 % of the country's annual rainfall, is expected to bring below‑average precipitation to the western and southern parts over the next two weeks. This follows a week of heavy showers along the west coast and could delay planting for key summer crops such as cotton, soybeans, and corn.

Why the Change Matters

• The monsoon is vital for a $4 trillion economy where almost half of the farmland lacks irrigation.
• Farmers rely heavily on rainfall for their livelihoods.

The Role of Madden‑Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Scientists from the India Meteorological Department predict that the Madden‑Julian Oscillation will be inactive in the coming weeks.

• Active MJO: Brings clouds and boosts rainfall.
• Inactive MJO: Leads to reduced rainfall and dry spells.

States such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala are likely to experience below‑average rain.

Current Weather Trends

• Heavy rains in the first eight days of July reduced India’s overall rainfall deficit to 15.2 %.
• The deficit is expected to rise again as the monsoon pauses.

Impact on Agriculture

• In July, only 35 million hectares were planted with summer crops—a 21 % drop from last year.
• Officials recommend planting shorter‑duration, water‑saving crops like corn, pearl millet, and green gram.
• Farmers in central, western, and southern regions will begin sowing in rainfed areas after recent showers. However, an immediate dry spell could hinder crop growth, warns a dealer from Mumbai who works with a global trading house.