New Money, New Markets: Robinhood and Coinbase Take on Predictions

Who's Jumping In?

Robinhood and Coinbase are both venturing into prediction markets, but they're playing the game differently. A recent study by a major investment bank suggests Robinhood might have the upper hand. Here's why.

• User Interest: Users on Robinhood and Coinbase are nine times more likely to bet on outcomes compared to the average investor.
• Topics: Big economic and political events are the main focus, with sports not far behind.

The Big Difference

Robinhood Users

• New Money: About half plan to use fresh cash.
• Selling Assets: Only a small fraction will sell stocks or crypto.

Coinbase Users

• Split Decision: Half plan to add new money, while the other half will sell crypto to fund their bets.
• Potential Issue: This could lead to less crypto trading overall for Coinbase.

Revenue Projections

• Robinhood:
• Projected $300 million run rate for Q4.
• 2.5 billion contracts in October alone.

• 6-7% increase in revenue estimates for 2026-2027.

• Coinbase:
• Launching its own prediction market product.
• Uncertain Impact: The bank hasn't factored in any upside yet.

Stock Price Changes

• Robinhood: Up 2.6% in early trading.
• Coinbase: Up 2% in early trading.