Older Leader Faces Growing Public Doubts About Mental Sharpness

The United States has seen a shift in how voters view the president’s mental and physical health. While Donald Trump was elected at 79, polls over the past year show a steady rise in concerns about his cognitive abilities.

Rising Worry About Cognitive Decline

A recent survey conducted before his first State of the Union address found that 61 % of Americans believed Trump had become “erratic with age,” a figure that also includes 30 % of Republicans. This level of worry is higher than any seen during his first term, though it still falls short of the 50 % threshold reached for former President Biden during his final months in office.

Declining Confidence in Sharpness

Another study noted that confidence in Trump’s mental sharpness dropped from 54 % in September 2023 to 45 % today. In contrast, only about a quarter of voters felt Biden was mentally fit in July 2024, the month he withdrew. Similar trends appear across other polls:

• CNN: Support for Trump’s stamina and sharpness fell from 53 % to 46 %.
• Post‑ABC‑Ipsos: 56 % of respondents doubted his mental fitness and 51 % questioned his physical health.

These numbers are comparable to the doubts faced by Biden when he was in his 60s, indicating a broader pattern of aging leaders being scrutinized for health.

Pew Research Center Findings

The Pew Research Center added another layer, reporting a decline in the proportion of Americans who are “very confident” in Trump’s mental fitness—from 39 % a year ago to 32 % now. Even among his core supporters, confidence dropped from 75 % to 66 %. Physical fitness confidence fell from 35 % to 28 %, and among Republicans it slipped from 65 % to 55 %. Thus, roughly one‑third of Trump’s base expresses at least some concern about his health.

Broader Implications

These shifts may mirror a general decline in Trump’s popularity, as negative perceptions of his public speeches and perceived oddities—such as mixing up place names or exhibiting visible bruises—become more pronounced. The slow release of medical information and a tighter public schedule may also fuel speculation. Regardless, the president now faces an issue that past leaders have confronted: balancing a demanding role with growing public scrutiny over age and health.