Oscar Season: BAFTA's Surprises and Predictions

The Oscar season is in full swing, and the BAFTAs have thrown a curveball with their recent wins. The BAFTAs have a history of being either a crystal ball or a red herring for the Oscars. In 2024, every BAFTA winner (except for visual effects) went on to win the Oscar, making it the most predictive year in recent memory. However, the year before, BAFTA charted its own path — only “Everything Everywhere All at Once” editor Paul Rogers repeated at the Oscars. So, with the final Oscar voting closing on Tuesday, Feb. 18, let’s break down the key takeaways from BAFTA’s curveballs and what they could mean for Hollywood’s biggest night. “Conclave” is a religious thriller that emerged as the BAFTA champ, taking home best film, adapted screenplay, editing, and outstanding British film. Suddenly, this film is looking like the only serious challenger to “Anora. ” But here’s the rub: “Conclave” lacks a director nomination at the Oscars, which is historically a major hurdle. Its best shot? A 2012 “Argo”-style victory, where it wins screenplay, editing, and picture. It’s not impossible, but it’s still a bit tough. There’s also this quirky Ralph Fiennes stat that I’ve become obsessed with: Every time he’s been nominated for an Oscar, his film has won best picture (1993’s “Schindler’s List” and 1996’s “The English Patient”). Added to his role in “The Hurt Locker” (2009), he’s currently in a 19-way tie for appearing in the most best picture winners with three. If “Conclave” wins, Fiennes would set a record, becoming the only actor with credited roles in four. However, “Anora” boasts a nearly unbeatable combination of DGA, PGA, Critics Choice, and WGA wins—a foursome that has only failed to convert once in Oscar history (sorry, “Brokeback Mountain”). So, does BAFTA signal a “Conclave” coup? Or is this just another case of Brits voting British before Hollywood does its own thing? Across the pond, BAFTA delivered a stunner — Mikey Madison upset the heavily favored Demi Moore to win leading actress for her titular role in Sean Baker’s dramedy “Anora. ” This makes Madison, at 25, the youngest winner since Scarlett Johansson’s “Lost in Translation” won in 2003 at age 19. But what does this mean for Oscar night? Three scenarios: Not much. Demi Moore could still take SAG, and then it’s business as usual — think Emmanuelle Riva beating Jennifer Lawrence at the BAFTAs before Lawrence won the Oscar. Madison steamrolls to an Oscar win. The same way Frances McDormand did with “Nomadland” (2020) after a similar three-win night of picture, director, and screenplay. The race is still wide open. If SAG goes rogue (say, Cynthia Erivo shocks with a win for “Wicked”), this could pave the way for Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”), who’d be the first leading winner without SAG or BAFTA nominations. Notably, a single acting win for best actress hasn’t paired with best picture, director, and screenplay since Diane Keaton for “Annie Hall” (1977), coincidentally, the last time all five best actress nominees were from best picture nominees. The bottom line is Madison’s win keeps things spicy. Kieran Culkin’s supporting actor win for “A Real Pain” was expected, but the real shocker? “Anora” lost in original screenplay — and not to Critics Choice champ “The Substance, ” but to Jesse Eisenberg’s film. Here’s why this matters: Three different major precursors (BAFTA, Critics Choice, WGA) have awarded three different films. Historically, when this kind of chaos happens, best picture becomes the tiebreaker. That means one of two things: If “Anora” is winning best picture, it’s still likely to take screenplay with it. If “Conclave” wins best picture, it could hint that “Anora” is weaker than expected, and “A Real Pain” or “The Substance” can still win. This echoes past splits, like when “CODA” beat “The Power of the Dog” at BAFTA or “Manchester by the Sea” surprised “La La Land” in 2016. After winning a Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA, Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”) seem like sure things. If any of them take SAG, no actor has lost the Oscar after sweeping all four major televised awards. But SAG’s preferences can sometimes tilt towards populist favorites (“Wicked” and “A Complete Unknown” are the most nominated films at SAG). Historically, at least one of the top two most-nominated SAG films wins something. That could be bad news for “A Complete Unknown” unless Timothée Chalamet sneaks in or “Wicked” can bring it home for the ensemble or Ariana Grande. This category is where the chaos meter spikes. On paper, Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) looks like a real contender after winning the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. But funny enough, history isn’t on his side. No director has won the Oscar with just a BAFTA and Globe win, and without the film winning any of the five other precursors. Meanwhile, Sean Baker (“Anora”) has been DGA and WGA-winning and has the strongest best picture contender in stats. So, unless we’re in for a Mike Nichols-style win, where Baker takes director solely, while his film loses best picture (see: 1967’s “The Graduate” losing to “In the Heat of the Night”), the likeliest scenario is: If Baker wins director, “Anora” is taking best picture. Or, if Corbet wins director, “Anora” or “Conclave” could still take picture — but you must factor in what’s winning screenplay. It’s a game of mix and match, and right now, the math favors Baker, but I’m ready for more surprises. The short answer is no. BAFTA’s Best Casting category has never matched the SAG ensemble winner. Case in point: past winners include “Joker” (2019), “West Side Story” (2021) and “Elvis” (2022) — none of which won SAG’s top prize (or were even nominated). With “Anora, ” “A Complete Unknown” and “Conclave” all in the mix, this could bode well for “Wicked, ” which leads in SAG nominations. But if “Conclave” takes the prize, it could be a final sign it’s the real spoiler, and then we flip a coin on Oscar night. Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” won BAFTA’s sound category to pair with its visual effects win. But before you lock it in, remember: Musicals and music biopics often dominate this category at the Oscars (see: “Bohemian Rhapsody, ” “Whiplash, ” “Dreamgirls”). However, with “Emilia Pérez, ” “Wicked” and “A Complete Unknown” in the mix, vote-splitting is a real possibility. If that happens, “Dune 2” could easily sneak through, mimicking “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” (2002), another sequel that saw the nominations of its predecessor cut in half. Perhaps this sets the stage for “Dune 3” to be the franchise’s “Return of the King” moment. BAFTA picked “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”, which isn’t Oscar-nominated. That means their usual predictive streak ends after the last four years. With DGA going to “Porcelain War” and PGA also picking “Super/Man, ” the documentary race is still unclear. This may be the coin-flip category of the night.

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