Pakistan's Battle with Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever: A Decade in Review

The Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) poses a significant threat to Pakistan. This is due to its location and the high number of cases in neighboring countries. The study looked at how CCHF cases spread over time and space in Pakistan. It also examined how temperature, rainfall, and seasons affected the number of cases. Data from 307 collection points across Pakistan from 2012 to 2023 was analyzed. The analysis used a statistical method called Poisson regression to see how temperature and precipitation affected the number of cases. Over a decade, 2, 559 people were suspected of having CCHF in 39 cities. Out of these, 547 cases were confirmed in 10 cities. This gives a positivity rate of 21. 37%. Most of the confirmed cases were men, making up 84. 6% of the total. The peak of confirmed cases occurred between 2016 and 2019, with 57. 6% of cases detected during this period. Most of the cases, 97. 4%, were found in just three cities. The summer months, especially August and September, saw the highest number of cases, with 41. 13% of confirmed cases reported during this time.

The study found that temperature had a positive correlation with suspected cases in Karachi and Quetta, with the effect seen immediately. However, precipitation had a negative correlation with suspected cases in Karachi and Peshawar, with the effect seen two months later. The fatality rate for CCHF patients admitted to a major hospital in Pakistan was 45. 8%. This high fatality rate highlights the seriousness of the disease and the need for better prevention and treatment strategies. CCHF is becoming more common in Pakistan. Most of the positive cases are found in three cities with high rates of human and animal movement. Outbreaks happen when multiple factors come together. Understanding the seasonal and climatic patterns can help policymakers predict disease outbreaks. This can lead to better implementation of animal regulations, transport controls, and surveillance of animal migration. This can help control outbreak situations in Pakistan. It is important to note that CCHF is a viral disease that can be transmitted to humans through tick bites or contact with infected animals. The disease can cause severe bleeding and organ failure, making it a serious public health concern. Effective prevention and control measures are crucial to reduce the impact of CCHF on public health.

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