Paraguay’s Political Shift: China’s Quiet Push to Replace Taiwan

Paraguay, a small landlocked nation with 6.4 million people, sits at the center of a subtle diplomatic tug‑of‑war between Beijing and Taipei. Its long‑standing recognition of Taiwan makes it the only South American state still officially allied with Taipei, while a shift would signal a symbolic win for China—an ally courting Latin American countries to isolate Taiwan on the world stage.

Chinese Outreach in Late 2023–Early 2024

Several Paraguayan lawmakers and journalists received invitations—believed to come from the Chinese consulate in São Paulo—to visit China. The trips, fully paid for by China, featured lavish accommodations, grand banquets, and guided tours of the Great Wall, manufacturing hubs, and advanced healthcare facilities. Participants reported that Chinese officials repeatedly emphasized how Paraguay could miss out on economic opportunities if it remained loyal to Taiwan.

• Leidy Galeano (Yo Creo party) said she was convinced that China’s economic model would benefit Paraguay more than Taipei, highlighting faster trade and investment flows if diplomatic ties were switched.
• Roya Torres was impressed by China’s cutting‑edge medical technology and warned that Paraguay risked falling behind if it stayed with Taiwan.

President Santiago Peña’s Defense of the Status Quo

Paraguay’s president, Santiago Pena, publicly defended the country’s relationship with Taiwan. He warned that nations which have shifted to China are now “worse off” than Paraguay, and he reiterated the nation’s commitment to freedom, democracy, human rights, and rule of law. The foreign ministry emphasized that ties with Taiwan are based on shared values.

U.S. Reinforcement of Ties

Meanwhile, Washington has taken steps to reinforce its own ties with Paraguay:

• A defense pact was signed in January.
• The country joined President Trump’s “Board of Peace.”
• It attended a White House minerals summit.

U.S. officials have cautioned Paraguayan officials on Chinese‑led tours about potential information bias.

Official Reactions

• China’s foreign ministry denied any lobbying, claiming that people‑to‑people exchanges are mutual and voluntary.
• Taiwan’s foreign ministry accused China of attempting to “poach” its allies and stressed its ongoing efforts to maintain existing diplomatic partnerships.

A Wider Pattern in Latin America

China’s outreach is not unique to Paraguay. Several Central and South American countries—Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras—have switched recognition after sustained Chinese engagement and promises of trade and infrastructure investment.

Economic Context

Paraguay’s economy has grown in recent years, buoyed by beef exports and manufacturing. It gained investment‑grade status in 2024, yet corruption and uneven development remain challenges. While China has poured record amounts of goods into Paraguay—imports exceeded $6 billion in 2025—the country cannot export directly to China because Beijing refuses trade with Taiwan‑recognizing states. Instead, goods must transit through Argentina or Brazil, reducing Paraguay’s profits.

Shifting Public Opinion

A recent poll by Metro consultancy indicated increasing support for establishing ties with China, though the poll’s funding source was not disclosed. Taiwan has responded by lobbying through media appearances and inviting Paraguayan lawmakers to visit Taipei, but the influence of Chinese‑sponsored trips is growing.

The Debate Ahead

The debate in Paraguay increasingly revolves around economic prospects and geopolitical alignment, with some lawmakers openly advocating for closer ties to Beijing. Whether Paraguay will follow the lead of other Latin American countries and pivot away from Taiwan remains uncertain, but China’s diplomatic strategy is clearly shaping the conversation.