Russians Hope for War's End in 2026

A recent survey by VTsIOM, a state-run polling agency, has unveiled that most Russians anticipate the war in Ukraine will conclude in 2026. This revelation coincides with growing diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.

Key Findings from the Poll

• Participants: 1,600 individuals
• 70% of respondents view 2026 more favorably than the current year.
• 55% of these individuals link their optimism to the potential end of what Russia calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Insights from VTsIOM's Deputy Head, Mikhail Mamonov

"The primary source of this optimism is the anticipated conclusion of the military operation and the fulfillment of Russia's stated objectives. This aligns with the national interests outlined by President Vladimir Putin."

Historical Context

Previous year-end polls by VTsIOM had emphasized the unity of Russian society around Putin and his military goals in Ukraine but did not provide specific figures on public expectations for the war's end.

Challenges in Assessing Public Sentiment

• Strict state controls on dissent make it difficult to gauge the true extent of public fatigue with the conflict.
• The war, which began in February 2022, is approaching its fifth year.

Factors Influencing Peace Prospects

• Ongoing Russian military offensive in Ukraine
• U.S. reluctance to continue financing Ukraine
• European Union's inability to fully replace U.S. financial and military support

Post-Conflict Priorities

According to Mamonov, post-conflict priorities include:

• Reintegration of veterans into society
• Reconstruction of Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine
• Reconstruction of Russian border regions

Independent Pollster Levada's Findings

• Two-thirds of Russians now support peace talks, the highest share since the war began.
• Levada is labeled a "foreign agent" under Russian law.

Diplomatic Developments

• The Kremlin confirmed that Putin has been briefed about his officials' contacts with envoys from former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding U.S. proposals for a Ukrainian peace deal.
• Moscow is currently formulating its position.

Putin's Conditions for Peace

• Ukraine must cede control of approximately 5,000 square kilometers of Donbas.
• Kyiv must officially renounce its intention to join NATO.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's Announcement

• On December 22, Zelenskiy announced that negotiations with the United States and European nations aimed at ending the war with Russia were "very close to a real result."
• He called for a meeting with Trump to address the most sensitive issues in a future peace deal, including territorial control.