This summer has been eventful. An attempted arson on a bus in Prague was stopped, and a man blew himself up with a homemade bomb at a hotel near Paris' Charles de Gaulle airport. Antisemitic graffiti appeared in Paris, and plots to disrupt the Olympic Games were foiled. In May, fires erupted at a shopping center in Warsaw and an Ikea in Vilnius. A metal factory owned by a defense manufacturer went up in flames near Berlin, and a package burst into flames on a plane in Germany. Authorities also thwarted an assassination plot against a German arms manufacturer CEO.
Earlier in the year, German authorities arrested two German-Russian nationals for plotting attacks on U. S. military facilities. In the UK, men were charged for an arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned business. A spy was arrested in Poland, and last year, the Czech Republic's railway system was hacked. Anti-war graffiti popped up in Poland, and cameras appeared along railway tracks transporting aid to Ukraine.
European governments think Russia is behind all these incidents, which isn't the full list. The Kremlin is also waging a disinformation campaign, using social media and fake websites to spread pro-Russian narratives. They even sent migrants to flood the Finnish border last year. Russia's goal? Target anyone helping Ukraine and sow chaos among Western communities.
The West has supported Ukraine but avoided direct conflict with Russia. However, Russia has been aggressive. The U. S. Helsinki Commission recently held a hearing on Russia’s shadow war, highlighting many incidents. The threat is known, but many in the U. S. and Europe seem unconcerned or unaware of its scale. Political leaders are split on how to counter it.
Russia has been at this for two decades. In 2007, after Estonia removed a Soviet monument, Russia launched a cyberattack paralyzing Estonia's internet. In 2011, Russian intelligence blew up an ammunition storage facility in Bulgaria. The Czech Republic accused Russia of cyberattacks and the 2014 explosion of munitions depots. In 2015, Russian agents tried to poison the owner of a Bulgarian arms factory.
Russia’s success comes from varied tactics across many countries and times. Heavy sanctions and scrutiny since Ukraine’s invasion have made it harder for Russian agents to move undetected. Now, Russia recruits sympathetic NATO citizens online for sabotage. Law enforcement is more aware, but finding effective responses remains challenging. Until that changes, Putin will likely continue these attacks.
