School Success Secrets: What Predicts Students Who Skip Support

Many schools in the United States use a system called Multi‑Tiered Systems of Support for behavior, or MTSS‑B. It is a layered plan that aims to help students who may need extra help before they become serious troublemakers. In a large study, researchers looked at almost 17, 000 kids from 42 schools that had tried MTSS‑B. Some of those schools added extra support layers, while others used only the basic level. The data came from a past experiment that ran from 2008 to 2012. The researchers matched that information with school records that tracked disciplinary actions up through 2024. They used computer‑driven techniques called machine learning to spot which early factors could signal a student’s risk of later problems, such as being suspended inside the school (ISS), taken out of school for a suspension (OSS), or even getting arrested. For students who ended up in ISS, the strongest protective signs were having family involved in their school life, being female, and showing internal worries or anxiety. These traits helped keep them from needing that kind of discipline.

When looking at OSS, the same protective factors appeared: family engagement, internal worries, and good grades. It seems that when kids feel supported at home and are doing well academically, they are less likely to be sent out of school. The risk of arrest was linked mainly to family challenges. Kids who had fewer family problems were less likely to end up in trouble with the law. Additionally, showing prosocial behavior—like sharing and helping others—and having family involvement again turned out to be protective. Interestingly, whether a school had the extra MTSS‑B layers or just the basic one did not change which factors mattered most. The key predictors stayed the same across both groups. These insights can help schools spot students who might not respond well to MTSS‑B early on. By focusing on family engagement and supporting students’ emotional health, schools can reduce the chances of serious disciplinary actions.

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