Shutdown Showdown: Who's Really Winning?

The current government shutdown is unfolding differently than anticipated. Republicans, who initially believed they held a strong position, are now facing challenges.

Historical Context

• 2013 Shutdown: Republicans attempted to defund Obamacare, but the strategy backfired.
• Leaders' Admissions: Mitch McConnell and John Boehner later acknowledged the move was a mistake.

Current Polling Data

• Washington Post-ABC News Poll:
• 45% blame President Trump and Republicans.
• 33% blame Democrats.
• Trend: This sentiment has remained consistent since before the shutdown began.

Democratic Advantage

• Popular Demand: Democrats are advocating for an extension of enhanced Obamacare subsidies, which enjoy over 70% public support.
• Republican Struggles: The GOP is struggling to find a clear path forward as the shutdown's impact grows.

Republican Missteps

• Trump's Suggestion: Proposed ending the filibuster to end the shutdown, an impractical idea that gave Democrats a talking point.
• Rollins' Controversial Remarks: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that if people needed food stamps so badly, it indicated a system failure. Republicans had to clarify her comments.

Democratic Gains

• Quinnipiac University Poll:
• 58% of Democratic voters now approve of their party's performance in Congress.
• A significant increase from earlier in the year when approval was around 40%.
• Strategic Opportunity: Democrats may view the shutdown as a chance to gain more support and push for their priorities.

Democrats' Motivation to Persist

• Pew Research Center Poll: Many Democrats feel the party isn't fighting hard enough against the Trump administration.
• Potential Gains: The shutdown could help Democrats achieve more than just a moral victory.