SpaceX IPO Could Shake Up Crypto’s Cash Flow

The world is watching a big event: SpaceX plans to sell shares worth about $75 billion, aiming for a valuation near $1.75 trillion. If it goes ahead in June, the deal would be larger than any IPO since 2000 and could pull a huge amount of money out of the market.

Other tech giants are also preparing for big listings. OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, looks to go public later this year with a valuation close to $1 trillion. Anthropic, another AI firm, plans an October debut that could raise more than $60 billion. Together, these three companies might bring in over $240 billion between June and the end of the year.

Investors see this as a chance for banks to earn big fees, but it also means that a lot of cash will shift from other investments into the new shares. When money moves out of stocks and into IPOs, it can leave less for risk‑taking assets like crypto.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major coins have become more connected to the stock market in recent years. When a large IPO happens, some of the money that would normally boost these high‑beta assets could instead go into buying the new shares.

A historical example shows what might happen. In April 2021, Coinbase went public while Bitcoin hit an all‑time high of about $64 800. The price fell by 50 % in the next six weeks, and many traders saw the IPO as a sign that mainstream money was leaving crypto.

SpaceX’s offering is different in two ways:

1. About 30 % of the shares—roughly $22 billion—are set aside for retail investors. That is three times the usual share of retail money in a deal this size, and it comes from people who are not buying crypto.
2. SpaceX owns more than 8 000 bitcoins worth around $600 million. Because of new accounting rules, this bitcoin position will be reported publicly when the company goes public.

What we’ll learn is whether crypto stays strong during SpaceX’s roadshow in May and June or starts to slip as investors free up money for the IPO. If Bitcoin continues to rise, it could mean that crypto is no longer tied to general risk‑on flows. But if the price drops, it might show that mainstream money is moving away from crypto just as before.

The market will reveal the outcome in about six weeks, and it could teach us whether crypto has learned from past IPO lessons or is repeating the same pattern.