The next Swedish election on September 13 looks set to hand power to the centre‑left opposition, a new survey from the national statistics office suggests. The four main parties on that side now enjoy 55. 2 % support, up from 48. 9 % in 2022.  

In contrast, the governing coalition led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson sits at 42. 6 %, down from 49. 6 % last time, and the Liberals fall below the 4 % threshold needed for seats.  

The Social Democrats, headed by former premier Magdalena Andersson, lead the opposition with 33. 9 % of the vote—an increase from 30. 3 % four years earlier.  

The current minority government, which includes the anti‑immigration Sweden Democrats, has focused on tightening immigration rules, cutting taxes, joining NATO and tackling gang crime.  

If the opposition wins, it could boost welfare spending while keeping existing policies on immigration, defence and Ukraine support largely unchanged.  

The Sweden Democrats now hold 18. 3 % of the vote, down from 20. 5 %, and are still seen as a key partner for Kristersson should he try to form another coalition.  

The poll surveyed 4, 542 people between April 28 and May 28, making it the largest of its kind in Sweden.


# Swedish Election 2026: Centre‑Left Looks Poised to Win

**Key Findings**

- **Centre‑left coalition:** 55.2 % support (↑ from 48.9 % in 2022)
- **Ruling coalition:** 42.6 % support (↓ from 49.6 %)
- **Liberals:** below the 4 % threshold for seats

**Party Breakdown**

| Party | Current % | Change from 2022 |
|-------|-----------|------------------|
| **Social Democrats** (Magdalena Andersson) | 33.9 % | +3.6 |
| **Sweden Democrats** | 18.3 % | –2.2 |
| Others (incl. Liberals) | 22.8 % | –4.9 |

**Implications**

- **Opposition victory** could boost welfare spending while maintaining current stances on immigration, defence and Ukraine aid.
- **Sweden Democrats** remain a pivotal partner for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in any future coalition.

**Poll Details**

- **Sample size:** 4,542 respondents
- **Survey period:** April 28 – May 28
- Largest poll of its kind in Sweden

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Sweden’s Vote: A Shift Toward the Left

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Party	Current %	Change from 2022
Social Democrats (Magdalena Andersson)	33.9 %	+3.6
Sweden Democrats	18.3 %	–2.2
Others (incl. Liberals)	22.8 %	–4.9