Syria's Government Takes Back Land: What's Next for the Kurds?

Syria's government has swiftly taken control of large areas in the north and east of the country, previously held by Kurdish forces. This rapid change brings almost all of Syria back under the control of the central government in Damascus.

Background Tensions

• Tensions between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been ongoing for months.
• The government wanted the SDF to join its security forces, but the SDF refused, aiming to maintain their own rule in the regions they controlled.

Recent Developments

• This month, the Syrian army took over Kurdish-run parts of Aleppo and moved eastward, forcing Kurdish fighters to retreat.
• The areas taken by the government include strategically important locations:
• Oil fields
• A major dam
• Farms
• Prisons holding Islamic State militants

International Involvement

• The SDF had captured these areas from Islamic State with U.S. support, but the U.S. never backed the Kurds' goal of an autonomous region.
• The U.S., with close ties to Turkey, sees the Kurdish YPG as a threat and has lifted sanctions on Syria, welcoming it into a coalition against Islamic State.

Ceasefire and Future Uncertainty

• A ceasefire was agreed on January 20, giving the SDF four days to plan their merger with the government.
• If a deal is reached, the government will not enter two Kurdish-held cities: Hasakah and Qamishli.
• The future of Syria remains uncertain, with differing ideologies between the government and the Kurds:
• The government is led by a former al Qaeda commander.
• The Kurds follow secular leftist and feminist ideas.

Complex Situation

• All sides want to avoid further fighting, but the ceasefire leaves many details to be worked out.
• The main issue is the extent of control the central government will have over the remaining Kurdish areas.
• Turkey has its own interests in Syria and launched a peace process with the PKK in early 2025, hoping recent events will push this process forward.