Texas Senate Primary: Who Will Pull the Ticket?

The upcoming Texas GOP primary for the U.S. Senate is more than a single seat; it could set the tone for many other races on the ballot. Candidates like Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt are fighting for the top spot because whoever wins will be the face of the Republican ticket, influencing turnout in federal and local contests.

• Cornyn claims he can keep moderate voters in the GOP camp, arguing that Paxton’s past controversies might scare away swing supporters.
• Paxton counters by saying he can energize the party base, pointing to a recent poll that shows both men close in a general election.
• The debate centers on electability: can the nominee keep Texas voters out of the Democratic column in November?

The 2018 midterms serve as a benchmark. When President Trump was on the ballot, Democrat Beto O’Rourke nearly unseated Sen. Ted Cruz and helped flip many down‑ballot seats. Republicans now want to avoid a repeat, so they are looking for a candidate who can repel the energized Democratic turnout without Trump’s name on the ballot.

Congressional maps have been redrawn to favor Republicans, turning five previously Democratic seats into more competitive ones. Still, the success of those races may hinge on how many voters the Senate nominee can bring to the polls. If the top‑ticket candidate attracts a strong turnout, it could create a ripple effect that helps Republican candidates further down the line.

• Paxton’s appeal to “America First” voters could drive turnout, but strategists worry his name might also drag down moderate Republicans.
• Cornyn’s record of winning by wide margins is cited as evidence that he is less likely to alienate voters.
• A pro‑Cornyn super PAC study claims Paxton could impose a 4‑to‑7 point drag on generic Republican congressional candidates, potentially jeopardizing several seats.

Regardless of the nominee, Democrats are sharpening their own strategies. Candidates like Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico debate whether to focus on persuading independents or expanding the base. Meanwhile, Gov. Greg Abbott’s campaign budget could be used to support Republican down‑ballot races, especially in competitive counties.

In short, the Texas Senate primary is a high‑stakes contest that could shape the political landscape for the next two years. The chosen nominee will not only decide who sits in Washington but also set the momentum for a host of other elections across the state.