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The Changing Fortunes of India and China's Middle Class

Friday, December 19, 2025
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A Tale of Two Economies

India and China, the world's most populous nations, have taken different paths in the last four decades.

  • 1980: Neither had a significant number of people in the global middle class.
  • Today: China has a large portion of its population in this group, but India has not seen the same growth.

The Puzzle of Economic Growth

Both countries opened their economies around the same time.

  • China: Became known for manufacturing.
  • India: Became known for services.

Yet, the results for their people are not the same.

The World Inequality Report

The World Inequality Report highlights this difference.

  • Question: Why are their middle classes so different?

Possible Reasons

  1. Growth Models

    • China: Fast growth focused on manufacturing.
    • India: Slower growth focused on services.
  2. Inequality

    • China: May have spread wealth more evenly.
    • India: May have more inequality, leaving many people poor.

The Importance of Fair Growth

  • Economic growth alone is not enough.
  • It must be fair and inclusive.

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