The Game Awards' GOTY Conundrum: A Recipe for Predictability

The Game Awards, often referred to as the video game Oscars, has established itself as the premier awards show in the gaming industry. The top prize, Game of the Year (GOTY), is coveted by developers and widely regarded as a reflection of the general conversation around the year's best games. However, a closer look at the winners and nominees reveals a concerning lack of diversity and a bias towards certain types of games. The jury, consisting of over 100 gaming media outlets, is responsible for selecting the nominees and winner. While this diversity is beneficial, it also leads to a flattening effect, where the opinions of major outlets tend to converge on the most obvious, mainstream choices. The fan vote, which accounts for 10% of the final tally, is another conservative influence.

Metacritic scores provide a strong indicator of GOTY winners. All but two of the GOTY winners have had a Metascore of 90 or more. Meanwhile, indie games face an uphill battle, with only two instances of overlap between Game of the Year and Best Independent Game nominees in the last four years. Genre also plays a significant role in GOTY voting. Action-adventure and role-playing games have a stranglehold on the award, with four of the 10 winners being RPGs and four being action-adventures. Story is also a crucial factor, with a strong bias towards games with narrative elements. The fans can swing it, but even the public vote is often influenced by the same mainstream leanings. The Most Anticipated category, a public vote on the most exciting forthcoming game, is a strong predictor of future GOTYs.

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