A significant financial challenge is looming for many developing nations. By 2025, these countries will face a massive debt repayment to China. This debt comes mostly from loans given out during the peak of China's Belt and Road Initiative, which started in 2013. The initiative aimed to connect Asia, Africa, and the Americas through infrastructure projects like ports, highways, and railroads.

        The Belt and Road Initiative was China's way of becoming a major global lender. At its height in 2016, China was lending about $50 billion, more than all Western creditors combined. However, new lending has slowed down. In 2025, developing countries will owe China $35 billion, with $22 billion of that coming from 75 of the world’s poorest nations. This huge repayment could seriously affect spending on health and education in these countries.

        The debt situation is complex. Developing countries are not only indebted to China but also to private Western lenders. High debt servicing costs can limit a country's ability to invest in public services and respond to economic and climate shocks. For instance, the 46 least developed countries spent about 20 percent of their tax revenues on external public debt in 2023. This figure is expected to rise.

        China's lending practices have been a topic of debate. Some view it as a way for China to gain geopolitical leverage. Others see it as a more reliable partnership compared to Western institutions. China has denied creating debt traps, but the lack of transparency in its lending practices raises questions. For example, Sri Lanka had to lease the Hambantota port to a Chinese firm for 99 years after failing to repay a loan.

        It's important to note that developing countries also owe significant amounts to Western institutions and private lenders. In 2022, African governments owed three times more to private financial groups than to China, with higher interest rates. This context is often overlooked when discussing the debt crisis.

        The global economic situation has also played a role. After the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflation led to higher interest rates. This made borrowing costs soar for developing countries. While global interest rates have slightly decreased, developing countries still face much higher borrowing costs compared to the US and Germany.

        China's loans often focus on long-term infrastructure investments, which can be beneficial for growth. However, the debt repayment burden is real and could have serious implications for the world's poorest nations. It's a complex issue that requires a nuanced understanding and careful consideration of all factors involved.

The Hidden Burden: Developing Countries and China's Loans

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