The Michigan Governor Race: Who’s Winning the Vote?

In a fresh poll released by Glengariff Group, U.S. Rep. John James shows no support from Black voters at all, while former Detroit mayor Mike Duggan leads the pack with 59.3% of that demographic. The three candidates—James, Democrat Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, and Duggan running as an independent—were compared in a three‑way matchup.

Key Findings

• James is struggling across several key groups:
• Trails Duggan among independents, women, metro Detroit residents, young voters, and seniors.
• Even when the race is narrowed to two candidates, Benson beats James, but both lose ground to Duggan.

• Duggan’s appeal is growing in the core counties of Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb.

• Benson and James enjoy similar backing from strong party loyalists (71% for Benson, 70% for James).

• Duggan is winning almost half of voters who lean Democratic but only a third of those who lean Republican, making him more damaging to Benson than to James.

Voter Sentiment

• Compromise: 91% of respondents want lawmakers in Washington and Lansing to find middle ground, yet most think those politicians do not.
• Gridlock: Duggan’s message of cutting through partisan gridlock resonates with voters who feel state politics are stuck.

Additional Insights

• Independent supporters may return to their parties by November.
• Trump’s approval is lower than Governor Whitmer’s.
• Michigan’s self‑perception of its economic standing as average is at odds with reality, where it sits near the bottom.
• Residents show surprisingly low awareness of AI data centers.

The Question

The outcome remains uncertain. Will Duggan’s slight edge hold, or will voters revert to a straight ticket? The question stays open as the election approaches.