As the calendar flips to late September, the US Gulf Coast is bracing for a potential tropical threat that could bring heavy rain, flooding, and even hurricane-force winds. A strong tropical storm or hurricane is brewing in the Caribbean, with computer forecast models depicting a possible scenario where the system develops in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. But what does this mean for the US Gulf Coast? Let's break it down.

The National Hurricane Center is currently giving medium odds of tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico within the next seven days. As the forecast window gets closer, the possibility of further development is increasing. "From Texas to Florida, the entire Gulf Coast is still at play," said FOX Weather Meteorologist Stephen Morgan.

Building the weather puzzle, it's clear that a weather pattern known as the Central American Gyre is forming, fueled by moisture streaming in from the Pacific Ocean. This gyre can produce heavy rain, flooding, and landslides in over a dozen countries centered in and around Central America. But what about the US Gulf Coast?

There are four main scenarios to consider, each presenting a greater threat to the region. The first scenario shows a gyre forming, but no tropical development. In this case, the atmospheric conditions come together for the broad area of low pressure to bring rain to Central America, but the right conditions to create any individual low-pressure areas never materialize.

The second scenario depicts a weak low-pressure system developing on the northern and western edge of the gyre, steered west into Central America. This could lead to rounds of heavy rain and concerns about mudslides and landslides.

The third scenario shows a low-pressure center forming on the eastern side of the gyre, developing farther south in the Caribbean. This could eventually move into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten coastal areas.

The most daunting scenario is if a low originates already in the Gulf of Mexico and rapidly develops into a hurricane, using the record-warm water temperatures to fuel its growth.

Tropical Trouble Brewing: The US Gulf Coast is in the Crosshairs

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