Türkiye's Inflation: A Slow but Steady Descent

Current Status

• Inflation Rate: Expected to drop to 20% by February.
• Previous Rate: 64%-65% over the past three years.
• Government Goal: Single-digit inflation, but it will take time.

Central Bank's Role

• Interest Rate Cut: 1.5 percentage points, bringing it to 38%.
• November Inflation: 31.07%, the lowest in four years.
• Contributing Factor: Lower food prices.
• Warning: Inflation expectations and pricing behavior could pose risks.
• Monetary Policy: Will remain tight until price stability is secured.
• Long-term Goal: 5% inflation rate in the medium term.

Government's Three-Phase Plan

1. Phase One: Control inflation and stabilize the economy.
2. Phase Two: Address macroeconomic imbalances.
3. Phase Three: Ensure long-term policy sustainability through structural reforms.

Market Expectations

• Government Target for Next Year: 13%-19%.
• Market Expectation: Inflation in the 20s.
• Finance Minister's Belief: Upper end of the target is achievable, barring additional shocks.

Conclusion

• Progress: Encouraging but still a long way to go.
• Efforts: Government and central bank working together.
• Process: Complex but promising results so far.