UConn Heads the Pack, But Others Still Have a Chance

The University of Connecticut is seen as the clear leader heading into this year’s women’s NCAA basketball tournament, with odds suggesting they could add a 13th title to their record. The betting market has set them at –265, the tightest pre‑tournament spread since 2018. This means most people think they will win, and many bookmakers are preparing for that outcome. The next best team in the odds is UCLA, who have a +550 chance to win. The remaining spots are split among several Southern Conference teams: Texas at +700, South Carolina at +800, LSU with a 16‑to‑1 probability and Vanderbilt at 50‑to‑1. Teams from Duke and Michigan also have odds under 100‑to‑1, but they are still far behind the top two.

Experts say UConn’s recent form is a big part of why they’re favored. They have won 29 straight games by double digits, a streak that stands out in recent history. One sportsbook trader noted that if UCLA were to pose a real threat, it would be the biggest challenge UConn faces. Still, if UConn keeps playing at this high level, few teams seem able to stop them. At the start of the season, UConn was considered a favorite with odds at +225. The South Carolina Gamecocks were close behind at +280, and the UCLA Bruins at +400. These four teams – along with Texas – are all seen as odds‑on favorites to make the Final Four. Early predictions in the ESPN Tournament Challenge had about 46% of brackets picking UConn to win. Betting companies have also tracked public interest. Together, UConn, UCLA and South Carolina accounted for 57. 4% of the money wagered at BetMGM during the season. While those teams’ odds were comfortable for sportsbooks, Michigan and Vanderbilt still posed some risk in terms of potential payouts.

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