Ukraine's Election Dilemma: War, Trust, and the Future

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed his willingness to hold elections within 90 days, but there's a significant hurdle. The country is currently under martial law due to Russia's ongoing invasion, making the legal feasibility of holding elections tricky.

Legal and Security Challenges

Zelenskyy has urged lawmakers to find a legal solution and has sought help from Western partners to ensure the security of the vote.

Historical Context and Current Popularity

2019 Elections: Zelenskyy won a landslide victory with over 73% of the votes.
Servant of the People: His party secured an outright majority in the parliamentary elections that year.
Popularity Trends:
2022 (Early): Dropped to 37%.
Post-Invasion (2022): Shot up to 90%.
Autumn 2023: Around 60% of Ukrainians still support him.

Polling Data and Potential Candidates

If elections were held today, Zelenskyy would likely win, according to a recent poll by Info Sapiens. He would secure around 20.3% of the votes, which is a significant drop from his 2019 performance but still the highest among potential candidates.

Top Three Potential Candidates

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: 20.3% support.
General Valerii Zaluzhnyi: Former commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, currently Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, with a stellar reputation for his role in defending Ukraine during the war. However, he has no plans to run for office anytime soon.
Kyrylo Budanov: Head of Ukraine's military intelligence, with just over 5% support. He has not expressed any political ambitions and is seen as crucial in his current role.

Public Opinion on Elections During the War

12% believe elections should take place amid the invasion.
22% support elections after a ceasefire with security guarantees, which Ukraine has not yet received.
63% believe elections should happen only after the war ends.

Zelenskyy's Future Plans

Zelenskyy has stated that he would not seek re-election once the war ends. He said his goal is to finish the war and help his country, not to win another term.