Ukraine's Uncertain Future: A Tale of Negotiations and Allies

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reason to be concerned. This week, the United States and Russia met in Saudi Arabia to discuss a possible end to the three-year war in Ukraine. The problem? Ukraine was not invited to the party. The United States says that Ukraine is involved in the talks, but Zelenskyy should be worried. Why? Because history shows that being a friend to the United States can be just as bad as being an enemy. The United States has a history of abandoning its allies. In 1956, the United States and the USSR forced the United Kingdom, France and Israel to withdraw from the Suez Canal. Six years later, the United Kingdom was abandoned by the United States. In 1969, President Richard Nixon entered office and put in place the Paris Peace talks with North Vietnam to end the war. The talks, negotiated by National Security Adviser and later Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, ultimately led to an agreement. South Vietnamese President Nguyen Van Thieu was forced to accept the terms. The Nixon administration had imposed a "Vietnamization" on the Army of Vietnam to assume responsibility for its own defense against the north, hoping it would work after the United States withdrew. Congress cancelled the funding. Thieu was gone. The scene of the disastrous U. S. evacuation from the U. S. Embassy in Saigon was a tragic pictorial of a war gone bad. The United States has a history of abandoning its allies. In 1956, the United States and the USSR forced the United Kingdom, France and Israel to withdraw from the Suez Canal. Six years later, the United Kingdom was abandoned by the United States. In 1969, President Richard Nixon entered office and put in place the Paris Peace talks with North Vietnam to end the war. The talks, negotiated by National Security Adviser and later Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, ultimately led to an agreement. South Vietnamese President Nguyen Van Thieu was forced to accept the terms. The Nixon administration had imposed a "Vietnamization" on the Army of Vietnam to assume responsibility for its own defense against the north, hoping it would work after the United States withdrew. Congress cancelled the funding. Thieu was gone. The scene of the disastrous U. S. evacuation from the U. S. Embassy in Saigon was a tragic pictorial of a war gone bad.

The Trump administration intended to end America's longest war in Afghanistan. In 2019, it entered into the Doha Agreement with the Taliban. The United States would withdraw by April 2020. The Taliban would provide the security. And guess who did not come to dinner? Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. The Biden administration took office in January 2020 and debated about Afghanistan. Despite the Joint Chiefs of Staff recommending retaining 2, 500 troops at Bagram Air Base outside Kabul, Biden chose a complete withdrawal, extending the date to August. But like Thieu, Afghani President Ashraf Ghani played no part in negotiating away his country. The withdrawal was a debacle. Thirteen U. S. service personnel were killed in a terrorist attack. Images of panicked Afghans trying to force themselves aboard the landing wheel compartments of U. S. air transports filled TV, computer and smartphone screens. Ghani and his administration had fled the country earlier, leaving Afghanistan without a government. Despite forecasts that Kabul would hold out for months, everything collapsed. The Taliban took over just as quickly as it fell after the U. S. 2003 intervention. The talks have a long way to go. Ukraine cannot survive without foreign support. But if European states who are members of NATO deploy troops to Ukraine and conflict breaks out, will Article 5 -- an attack against one shall be considered an attack against all -- be invoked, committing the alliance, including the United States, to war? This question is one of many profound and perplexing quandaries that must be addressed if an agreement is to be reached in Afghanistan. Zelensky, like Thieu, will be given a fait accompli. His only leverage is the threat to fight on, no matter. In that case, the outcome seems predictable. Russia will win. Perhaps shuttle diplomacy will work. Separating the two combatants may be the only way to conduct the negotiation. Still, will Zelensky's and Ukrainian interests be preserved? Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth's remarks at the Munich Security Conference last week were called a "rookie mistake" by U. S. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss. , tipping the administration's hand. Ukraine would not join NATO or regain its pre-2014 borders before Russia occupied Crimea. While the White House tried to modify the remarks, it did not. Ukraine must see how this could turn out. The Vietnam and Doha talks are important indicators. If Trump really wants to end the war, he can -- at Ukraine's expense. And if the talks move to Paris, Zelensky needs plans A, B, C, D and so on.

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