US-Iran Tensions: What's Next?

The US has a history of using military force against Iran, with last year's bombing of Iranian nuclear sites being a notable example. This attack was seen as a success, with no US casualties or loss of aircraft. Now, President Trump is threatening to attack Iran again, this time in support of the hundreds of thousands of Iranians protesting against their government.

Potential Targets and Risks

Any new US attack on Iran is unlikely to be like the one-time strikes that hit three nuclear targets last summer. An attack in support of the protesters would need to focus on a range of command centers and other targets related to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its affiliated Basij forces, and the Iranian police force. These are the main organizations carrying out the bloody crackdown on dissent.

However, these command centers are located within populated areas, meaning there's a substantial risk of US raids killing the very civilians Trump is trying to support. Killing civilians could backfire and alienate the dissidents who are united only in their hatred of the regime.

Possible Strategies

Targeting Leadership

Analysts suggest that the US could target Iran's top leadership, indirectly. Iran has learned from Israeli attacks that targeted and killed senior members of Iran's military and nuclear scientists last year. Hitting the homes and offices of regime leaders would send a message, according to analysts.

Financial Targets

Washington could also hit Iranian leaders in their wallets. The leadership and the IRGC have a range of commercial businesses and money-making enterprises across the country. Attacking the specific facilities that are financially important to them as individuals and their families could be an option.

Potential Weapons and Methods

Tomahawk Cruise Missiles

Regional IRGC HQs and bases can be hit by Tomahawk cruise missiles, which can be fired from US Navy submarines and surface ships well off Iranian shores, minimizing the risk of US casualties.

Drones

Drones could also be used, but it's unlikely to see crewed aircraft dropping short-range ordnance or free-fall bombs as it is likely to be assessed as too risky. The US usually has an aircraft carrier in the Mideast, but as of Monday, the nearest flattop, the USS Abraham Lincoln, was thousands of miles away in the South China Sea.

Expectations

Whatever method the Trump administration might choose to strike Iran this time, expect it to be dramatic. The administration is attracted to theater, meaning dramatic, media-attracting, head-turning events. And expect it to be quick, just like last year's one-time strike on the nuclear facilities.