Weather Forecasting: Can Startups Fill the Gap?

Imagine a world where the National Weather Service (NWS) is no longer the go-to for reliable weather data. This is the reality that Tomorrow. io, a startup, is now facing. The company, which has been providing customized weather forecasts for businesses, may soon have to step up and fill the void left by the NWS. This isn't an easy task, as the NWS has a vast network of satellites, weather balloons, and ground radar systems. But with the recent cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the company may have no choice but to step up. The cuts to NOAA, which were orchestrated by Elon Musk's DOGE minions, have left the NWS struggling to provide reliable weather data. The firing of up to 20% of the staff and the proposed closure of crucial facilities have left the NWS in a state of disarray. This has led to delays in the launch of weather balloons and more cuts are on the horizon. The General Services Administration is also considering terminating the lease for a critical weather center in Maryland, where weather forecast operations have been consolidated and centralized for the whole country. The cuts to NOAA have left many climatologists fearing that the public weather forecasting is degrading. The private sector, which relies heavily on NOAA's data, is currently ill-equipped to fill the gaps left by the cuts. Nearly all commercial weather companies, from Tomorrow to the weather app on your phone, rely on NOAA's data to power their forecasting models. This is because NOAA collects a vast amount of data from satellites, weather balloons, ground radar systems, and more. The cuts to NOAA weren't something that Shimon Elkabetz, the founder of Tomorrow, foresaw when he started the company in 2016. At the time, the company was focused on providing timely, reliable weather information to businesses. The company's solution was to create software that can not only provide forecasts but also concrete suggestions for the steps a specific business should take to mitigate weather impacts. For example, it provides its airline customers with recommendations for grounding or re-routing flights during major storms. For pharmaceutical customers, it offers weather alerts to optimize transportation of temperature-sensitive raw materials and drugs. And for the Chicago Cubs, it provides information about weather conditions at Wrigley Field impact player performance.

Tomorrow's algorithms were initially similar to NOAA's, which rely on complex equations to simulate atmospheric behavior using the vast amounts of data it collects. More recently, the company has moved to generative AI models that can analyze both publicly available data from NWS and Tomorrow's own satellites to produce insights for its customers. This has allowed the company to automate often-manual decision making and improve access to weather data globally. The company has also focused on improving data gathering in ways that don't require big hardware investments. For example, it has used radio signals from cell towers to measure weather-related data. This wasn't particularly helpful, but ground radar systems like those used by NOAA cost billions. And while there might be cheaper systems like balloons, they only collect data locally. So even if the company could invest in hundreds of balloons, it wouldn't scale globally. This led the company to space. In May 2023, Tomorrow launched what may have been the first commercially built weather radar satellite. A second followed later that year and in 2024, the company launched a pair of microwave sounder satellites, which measure temperature, humidity and other atmospheric data. Two more satellites followed in December 2024, bringing its orbital total to six. In the fall, Tomorrow embarked on a pilot project to provide its satellite data to NOAA, which is evaluating it for use in forecasts. Tomorrow has raised $269 million in venture capital, most recently with a $109 million series E round that closed in 2023. The company declined to state a valuation, but an aborted special purpose acquisition deal that would have taken the company public in 2022 valued it at $1. 2 billion. The deal fell through, Elkabetz said, because market conditions made it clear that raising capital privately was more efficient. The company declined to state its revenue, but Elkabetz said it's grown "very much" since the $19 million it reported for 2021 and that he expects the company to be cash flow positive within the next 12 months. Despite all of this, Tomorrow is not equipped to replace the National Weather Service's forecasts. The company's satellites and data gathering methods are not a replacement for the vast network of satellites, weather balloons, and ground radar systems that the NWS uses. But with the recent cuts to NOAA, the company may have no choice but to step up and fill the void.

Actions