What Will US Election Mean for Ukraine-Russia Talks?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently pointed out that Russia is closely watching US policy. He mentioned that Moscow’s willingness to negotiate depends on the outcome of the US elections. If Kamala Harris wins, she is expected to continue the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine, despite some disagreements over using Western weapons against Russia. On the other hand, Donald Trump has suggested he might end support for Ukraine and claims he could end the war in a day. However, experts say that regardless of who wins, Russia may not be ready to negotiate. Thomas Graham, a Russian foreign policy expert, thinks that Trump’s plan might not be quick or easy. A reduction in US aid could impact the battlefield, but Russia might exploit any political dysfunction in the US or cracks in Western unity. These could include a split US Congress or financial pressures on European allies. Without a united West, Putin has no reason to change his stance in Ukraine, experts say.

The war is also seen as a broader conflict between Russia and the West. For Putin, Ukraine is just a tool to limit US influence. Analysts warn that any concessions could be seen as US weakness by China, which is supporting Russia’s war efforts. Ukraine is outnumbered, and Russia is ready to accept heavy losses. Over 600, 000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, according to NATO. Ukrainian commanders say Russia uses sheer numbers and advanced equipment to gain ground. Ukraine knows it needs more support for both troops and equipment. If US aid decreases, Ukraine could become more outgunned. European nations are increasing ammunition production to prevent setbacks. But even with current support, Ukraine’s Western allies may not provide enough resources for major gains. Putin’s strategy also aims to demoralize Ukraine’s population by attacking civilians and infrastructure. Despite exhaustion, Ukrainians don’t seem ready to settle. Zelensky continues to call for support from both US parties.

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